Politics Blog

Debunking The IPCC 10% Myth

On my virtual trips around the internet, I’ve seen a number of unique arguments against anthropogenic global warming.  One of the arguments that keeps creeping up is the IPCC uncertainity myth.  The myth states that even if we take the IPCC at face value, they are only 90% sure that man has anything to do with global warming, and even less sure about how much. 

Or as one poster I read so eloquently put it:

I wanted to bring up the fact that even the report, which claims MMGW (man made global warming), could only say that there is a 90% chance that man has AN effect on global warming.

This is the equivalent of dog s***. Using the term “an” allows them a lot of leeway in semantics. Man could be responsible for 1% of GW. Man could be responsible for 99% of global warming. Until they can state with certainty not only does man contribute to global warming, but also HOW MUCH they can seriously kiss my skeptical **.

At best, that report says that they are 90% sure our activities have some (unknown and unmeasured) effect. BFD

This confusion has largely stemmed from the mainstream media repeatedly saying the 90% figure in their articles and reports, along the lines of ’’scientistists are 90% sure man is causing global warming.”  If you’re a skeptic reading that, it may read as though IPCC scientists believe there’s a 10% chance global warming isn’t be influenced by man.  There’s not, it’s just lazy media reporting.

The truth of the matter is, the IPCC report states with very high levels of confidence that man is causing the vast majority of the current warming of the earth.  The IPCC report in it’s entirety can be found online here, but here’s a brief breakdown of what it says in this regard.

The combined anthropogenic radiative forcing (note: radiative forcing is concept used for quantitative comparisons of the strength of different human and natural agents in causing climate change) is estimated to be +1.6 … indicating that, since 1750, (there is a greater than 95% chance) that humans have exerted a substantial warming influence on climate. This radiative forcing estimate is likely to be at least five times greater than that due to solar irradiance changes. For the period 1950 to 2005, (there is less than a 1% chance) that the combined natural radiative forcing  (solar irradiance plus volcanic aerosol) has had a warming influence comparable to that of the combined anthropogenic radiative forcing.

The bottom line is, the report states that there is a greater than 99% chance that the warming is caused more by man than by all the natural means added together.

Mike Gravel Democratic Debate Quotes

After being asked about his statement that he’s not in it to win it: 

Brian, you are right. I made that statement, but now that I’ve stand with them a couple, three times. Its like your first day in the Senate. You say, ‘How did I get here,’ and then about six months later you say, ‘How the hell did the rest of them get here? I’ve got to tell you, after standing up with them, some of these people frighten me.’ 

On the three most important enemies of the United States:

We have no important enemies. What we need to do is to begin to deal with the rest of the world as equals, and we don’t do that. We spend more as a nation on defense than all the rest of the world put together.Who are we afraid of? Who are you afraid of, Brian? I’m not.

And Iraq has never been a threat to us. We invaded them. I mean, it is unbelievable. The military-industrial complex not only controls our government lock, stock and barrel but they control our culture.

On the other the candidates’ War positions:

They frighten me. When you have mainline candidates that turn around and say that there’s nothing off the table with respect to Iran. That’s code for using nukes.

On Joe Biden:

You have a certain arrogance.  You want to tell the Iraqis how to run their country. I gotta tell you, we should just plain get out.”

On the other Candidates:

I won’t hold there youth and inexperience against them.

On how to end the War:

We need to find another way, that’s where I would like to sit down with Pelosi and with Reid and I hope you other senators would focus on how do you get out? You pass a law not a resolution — a law making it a felony to stay there.

Who Won The Democratic Presidential Debate?

According the results of a SurveyUSA poll conducted after the debate in South Carolina, Barack Obama came out as a slight winner.

1.) Did you listen to tonight’s South Carolina presidential debate? (Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.7%)

67% No
32% Yes
0% Unsure

2.) Who won the debate? ( Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5%)

31%  Obama
24%  Clinton  
14%  Edwards 
6%  Biden   
4%  Richardson
3%  Kucinich
2%  Gravel   
2%  Dodd 
13%  Not Sure

3.) Who lost the debate? (Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5%)

17% Gravel
12% Clinton
10% Kucinich
9% Dodd
9% Obama
9% Richardson
8% Biden
5% Edwards
20% Not Sure

The Funny Section

I began work on The Funny Section yesterday.  If you’re like me and need a break from the harsh realities the daily news brings us every once and a while, give it a visit.  There will be several entries updated daily (hopefully )containing categories on ‘’dumb crooks'’, ‘’weird stories'’, ‘’funny road signs'’ and other stuff along those lines. 

It’s About The Ratings, Duh

After losing out to ABC News in the ratings for the first time in years, NBC Nightly News With Brian Williams, which was heavily promoted by it’s cable network MSNBC Wednesday for having an exclusive on the manifesto and video of the VT killer, averaged a 7.5 rating and 15 share in the top 55 television markets, according to data from Nielsen Media Research. Those numbers easily beat the competing newscasts on ABC, which scored 6.1 rating and 12 share, and CBS who came in last with a meager 4.2 rating 8 share.  To the surprise of no one, we were again shown the bottom line is the bottom line, even if that means putting a stop to all basic decency.

Don Imus: “I could go to work tomorrow”

What’s the future for Don Imus?  Well, perhaps a bit optimistically, Imus answered that in an e-mail exchange with Newsweek Magazine, Imus said, “I could go to work tomorrow. Bigger deal. More money. TV simulcast … I’ve got a summer of kids to cowboy with and then we’ll see.”

Imus went on to say “I’m a good and decent person who made a mistake in the context of comedy.  My strength comes from not being full of shit and a coward.”

Newsweek article

Support The Imus Ranch

One of the things that has been largely ignored in all this controversy is the good work that gets done on the Imus Ranch.  The Imus Ranch is a non-profit working cattle ranch in New Mexico for children with cancer and has largely been funded by Imus’s radio telethons.  Regardless of anyone’s position on the controversy, one thing I hope we can all agree on is hoping to see the good deeds of the Imus Ranch continue on. 

You can help support the cause online at the official Imus Ranch website by either a cash donation or by purchasing products (of which, 100% goes to the Ranch).

Hillary Falls Behind In New Poll

What candidate ‘would be best able to lead the country out of Iraq?’

Obama: 27.87%
Edwards: 24.84%
Kucinich: 17.18
Richardson: 12.26%
Clinton: 10.7%

Sen. Hillary Clinton, the current favorite to win Democratic nomination, lagged behind her most of her competition in a poll taken after a virtual town hall meeting over Iraq.

Will Al Sharpton Apologize?

A year ago Al Sharpton went to North Carolina after the Duke rape allegations to try and push his agenda, get attention, and most importantly, put pressure to get these 3 men convicted, as he seemingly always does during a ‘’race'’ controversy.  A year later, the evidence, or lack of it, has made it pretty clear these 3 men were innocent and falsley accused.  These student athletes have undoubtedly gone through a year of emotional and fiscal hell over this. 

Will Sharpton apologize?  Would he be demanding an apology if the shoe was on the other foot?  He’s a phony and a fraud, and we’re all suckers for continuing to help him push his agenda and build his empire over creating racial divisions.

http://forumpolitics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2597

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