Politics Blog

Debunking The IPCC 10% Myth

On my virtual trips around the internet, I’ve seen a number of unique arguments against anthropogenic global warming.  One of the arguments that keeps creeping up is the IPCC uncertainity myth.  The myth states that even if we take the IPCC at face value, they are only 90% sure that man has anything to do with global warming, and even less sure about how much. 

Or as one poster I read so eloquently put it:

I wanted to bring up the fact that even the report, which claims MMGW (man made global warming), could only say that there is a 90% chance that man has AN effect on global warming.

This is the equivalent of dog s***. Using the term “an” allows them a lot of leeway in semantics. Man could be responsible for 1% of GW. Man could be responsible for 99% of global warming. Until they can state with certainty not only does man contribute to global warming, but also HOW MUCH they can seriously kiss my skeptical **.

At best, that report says that they are 90% sure our activities have some (unknown and unmeasured) effect. BFD

This confusion has largely stemmed from the mainstream media repeatedly saying the 90% figure in their articles and reports, along the lines of ’’scientistists are 90% sure man is causing global warming.”  If you’re a skeptic reading that, it may read as though IPCC scientists believe there’s a 10% chance global warming isn’t be influenced by man.  There’s not, it’s just lazy media reporting.

The truth of the matter is, the IPCC report states with very high levels of confidence that man is causing the vast majority of the current warming of the earth.  The IPCC report in it’s entirety can be found online here, but here’s a brief breakdown of what it says in this regard.

The combined anthropogenic radiative forcing (note: radiative forcing is concept used for quantitative comparisons of the strength of different human and natural agents in causing climate change) is estimated to be +1.6 … indicating that, since 1750, (there is a greater than 95% chance) that humans have exerted a substantial warming influence on climate. This radiative forcing estimate is likely to be at least five times greater than that due to solar irradiance changes. For the period 1950 to 2005, (there is less than a 1% chance) that the combined natural radiative forcing  (solar irradiance plus volcanic aerosol) has had a warming influence comparable to that of the combined anthropogenic radiative forcing.

The bottom line is, the report states that there is a greater than 99% chance that the warming is caused more by man than by all the natural means added together.

Scientists Global Warming Consensus

It seems there’s not a day that goes by that I hear or read comments doubting the often mentioned consensus on global warming.  So what is the truth, is there or isn’t there a consensus?  This is just what Prof. Naomi Oreskes looked to answer in a study conducted in late 2004.  As reported in Science Magazine  a sample of 928 peer-reviewed papers searched under the term ‘’global climated change'’ were looked at, and a total of 0 rejected consensus position.  It’s time for us to move past the fringe right and paid skeptics and recognize scientists who have dedicated their lives to this do have a fundamental understanding, and are in agreement.  It’s time to take the next step, and begin looking for viable solutions.

IPCC Summary For Policy Makers Report

The 18 page IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report can be found here:

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

Although many of the scientific terms may be confusing to anyone without a proper background, the report is laid out in a way that makes it easier to understand with several helpful charts. 

 Here’s a few quotes from the report: